Nigeria’s food security challenge remains a major concern for the economy, with 36.29 million people facing crisis-level food insecurity or worse, even as declining rice prices offer some relief to consumers and opportunities for businesses across the agricultural value chain.
The September 2026 edition of the Food Security Monitor published by the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) shows that Nigeria accounts for the largest number of people facing severe food insecurity among the 17 African countries monitored, highlighting the scale of the challenge confronting food production, distribution and household purchasing power.
The report puts the affected population at 16.65 per cent of Nigeria’s population analysed, with the number unchanged from August. The figures underscore the difficulty of translating improvements in food availability and market prices into better access to affordable meals for millions of households.
For businesses, the situation highlights the importance of strengthening domestic agricultural production, storage, processing and distribution to improve food availability while reducing the vulnerability of consumers and farmers to supply disruptions.
The report identifies insecurity, high fuel and transport costs, elevated staple food prices and reduced household incomes as major constraints on food access, particularly across northern Nigeria. Emergency-level food insecurity persists in inaccessible, conflict-affected parts of Borno State, while crisis conditions are expected to continue across much of northern Nigeria through January 2027.
The outlook presents a challenge for farmers, food processors, commodity traders and retailers seeking to expand operations in the country. Insecurity disrupts access to farmland and markets, while high distribution costs can prevent improved supplies from translating into affordable prices for consumers.
One of the report’s notable findings is the sharp decline in Nigeria’s rice prices in September, offering a potential boost to consumers and businesses that depend on the commodity.
Rice prices fell by 18.3 per cent month-on-month in US dollar terms to $376 per metric tonne, the lowest among the monitored African markets. The decline was the steepest recorded across the West African markets covered by the report, reflecting improved availability and easing market pressures.
However, the decline in rice prices contrasts with developments in other staple grain markets, where supply pressures have pushed prices higher.
Nigeria’s average maize price increased by 15.1 per cent over six months, although it remained 14.3 per cent below its level a year earlier. The report also recorded a 7.8 per cent monthly increase in millet prices to N511.70 per kilogramme.
Sorghum prices rose by 8.6 per cent month-on-month to N476.78 per kilogramme. The commodity’s price was also 47.5 per cent higher than its level six months earlier and 17.7 per cent above the September 2025 level, indicating sustained upward pressure on supplies.
The divergent movements suggest that food affordability cannot be assessed through a single commodity. While easing rice prices may offer some relief, rising prices for other staples could continue to strain household budgets and increase costs for food businesses.
Beyond consumer prices, rising agricultural input costs remain a concern for the sector.
AGRA’s report says global fertiliser markets remained firm in September, with phosphate fertilisers recording further increases and urea recovering after earlier declines. Although immediate supply shortages have been limited by existing inventories, advance purchases and domestic production, higher fertiliser, fuel and transportation costs threaten affordability.
The report warns that prolonged input-cost pressures could lead farmers to reduce fertiliser application or switch to crops requiring fewer inputs, potentially weakening productivity and future food supplies.
For Nigeria, the implications extend beyond farm-level expenditure to processors, distributors and retailers that depend on reliable agricultural output. A reduction in yields or disruptions to supply could undermine the benefits of recent price declines and increase pressure on food inflation.
This makes access to affordable farm inputs, improved storage, efficient logistics and investment in climate-resilient agriculture important considerations for businesses and policymakers seeking to stabilise supplies.
The report also points to opportunities to strengthen food distribution and regional commerce through improved trade infrastructure.
Nigeria has reduced the processing time for African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Certificates of Origin from more than five days to 24 hours through the digitisation and automation of registration, verification and certification procedures. It has also resolved eight non-tariff barrier cases and advanced other initiatives aimed at facilitating trade.
Faster certification could help eligible Nigerian businesses access preferential trade arrangements more efficiently, potentially supporting agricultural exporters and companies operating across regional food value chains.
Separately, the African Export-Import Bank and the Africa Trading and Distribution Company signed a $500 million global credit facility in September to strengthen trade, logistics and distribution networks. The initiative is expected to support the aggregation, transportation, warehousing and movement of African goods, with initial operations in Nigeria, Egypt, Malawi and Zimbabwe.
For Nigeria’s agricultural sector, such investments could create opportunities to improve market access, strengthen supply chains and expand value addition, provided businesses can overcome constraints involving production, financing, security and transport.
The report’s findings suggest that Nigeria’s food security challenge requires more than short-term price relief. Sustained improvements will depend on stronger agricultural productivity, reliable access to inputs, efficient distribution and functioning regional markets.
Although lower rice prices provide a positive signal, the continued rise in some grain prices and the large population facing severe food insecurity underline the need to turn market improvements into lasting gains for farmers, food businesses and consumers.